DOI码：10.3390/atmos12010081
发表刊物：Atmosphere
摘要：Although much progress has been made in identifying the large-scale drivers of recent summer precipitation variability in North China, the evolution of these drivers over longer time scales remains unclear. We investigate multidecadal and interannual variability in North China summer precipitation in the 110-year Coupled ECMWF Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century (CERA-20C), considering changes in regional moisture and surface energy budgets along with nine circulation indices linked to anomalous precipitation in this region. The CERA-20C record is separated into three distinct periods according to the running climatology of summer precipitation: 1901–1944 (neutral), 1945–1979 (wet), and 1980–2010 (dry). CERA-20C reproduces expected relationships between large-scale drivers and regional summer precipitation anomalies well during 1980–2010, but these relationships generally do not extend to earlier periods. For example, a strong relationship with the Eurasian teleconnection pattern only emerges in the late 1970s, while correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific–Japan pattern change sign in the mid-twentieth century. We evaluate two possible reasons for this nonstationarity: (1) the underlying atmospheric model may require strong data assimilation constraints to capture large-scale circulation influences on North China, or (2) large-scale drivers inferred from recent records may be less general than expected. Our analysis indicates that both factors contribute to the identified nonstationarity in CERA-20C, with implications for the reliability of seasonal forecasts and climate projections based on current models.
备注：Dai, L. and J. S. Wright
论文类型：期刊论文
论文编号：81
学科门类：理学
一级学科：大气科学
卷号：12
期号：1
页面范围：81
是否译文：否
收录刊物：SCI
发布期刊链接：https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010081